What about Huawei after the U.S. election?



America's elections may be the most important internationally. The monitoring that is being done in Spain is comparable to that of national elections, and the impact will not be so immediate, but it will affect us.

This is neither new nor surprising, given the relevance in the international theatre that an actor like the United States has. And more with Donald Trump at the helm.

At the time of writing, these lines have been about 12 hours since polling stations closed in the American country, but we still don't know who will be the next president. Not all votes have been counted but, even when the recount is over, there is a predictable legal battle ahead, as the president has advanced so far.

We will focus on the analysis of this election by focusing on the Trump administration's veto imposed on Huawei.

What Trump could do if he won

This scenario is the most obvious because, if neither the COVID-19 pandemic has managed to slow the New Yorker down, it seems that he will not retract any of the previous measures he has taken, and that includes veto.

In recent hours we have seen certain approaches and we could see that Huawei can buy Samsung screens, Sony photo sensors or Qualcomm processors, as long as in the US government they do not change their minds.

Internationally, all of this will be irrelevant if Google can't reinstall its standard apps on the Terminals of the Chinese firm.

Even if China continues to keep Huawei afloat, the firm's level of investment should be reduced as resources, and profits would be lower than in previous years.



Biden could change things, but it's not a certainty

To say that Biden is a more focused politician than Donald Trump is not to say much, given that the businessman is almost the antithesis of what is expected of public office.

But being vice president with Barack Obama has a well-deserved reputation for being a dialogue man who likes to talk, but also to listen. Even when there are no cameras in front. This allows us to hypothesize with an improvement in U.S.-China relations, something that would a priori be positive for both countries, as well as for the rest of the world.

Although for those of us who are tech aficionados Huawei's case is the most relevant thing about America's relationship with China in recent years, the reality is that tariffs and trade war has been the first problem.

Joe Biden could maintain a somewhat lower profile than Trump in his international relations, and possible ties would be restored, but that does not guarantee that, for example, Huawei can enter a market like the American.

In early 2019, the Asian firm was about to start selling in the United States with operators such as AT&T although the government had them slow down operations. Soon after, Huawei's future would change.

As I say, Huawei is unlikely to be licensed to operate within the United States, at a time when even European countries have decided to remove the Chinese firm from its licenses to create 5G networks.

However, the Biden administration could once again allow Huawei to use Google's services, which are still a U.S. deployment tool across the globe (except China curiously). This would give Huawei a big oxygen balloon, which would not be what it was immediately again but would have the ability to manoeuvre to restructure its future. And that's the key.



What Huawei would do with Biden as president

When Trump showed that Huawei's veto wasn't going anywhere, I wrote an article titled Trump has opened Pandora's box with the veto to Huawei.

In it, he raised the possibility that Huawei, supported by the Chinese government, would decide that its future would be, yes or yes, away from Google and the United States. Donald Trump had given every company on the planet a reason to move away from relations with U.S. firms. And China didn't seem too worried about it.

We have to think that China is a state with leaders who look very long-term. So much so that Westerners think they are aeons, led as we are by a political class incapable of looking beyond a few months in the future.

I explain this because what might happen is that even if Huawei re-establishes some ties with American firms, the Chinese government would support the giant to become what are now Google or Applewithin a decade or two.

Yes, we may think it's barbaric, but remember where Google and Apple were two decades ago. The first had just been created and took its first steps. The second had just hired Steve Jobs again.

A cycle change in which Huawei is a key part

Many analysts think we are facing a moment in history when the United States is beginning to cede its global leadership and China is the power most likely to take over.

Telecommunications can become the new battlefield and Huawei has a lot to say there. The signature we know from smartphones may end up being more IBM-like today than Apple, but certainly, be sure it's not going anywhere.

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